STAMFORD, USA: The worst may be over for the PC industry, as worldwide PC shipments are on pace to reach 285 million units in 2009, a 2 percent decline from 2008 shipments of 291 million, according to the latest forecast by Gartner, Inc. The new forecast is more optimistic than Gartner’s June forecast, which anticipated a 6 percent unit decline in 2009.
"PC demand appears be running much stronger than we expected back in June, especially in the US and China," said George Shiffler, research director at Gartner. "Mobile PC shipments have regained substantial momentum, especially in emerging markets, and the decline in desk-based PC shipments is slowing down. We think shipments are likely to be growing again in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the fourth quarter of 2008."
Despite the increasingly positive outlook for the PC market, Gartner does not envision global shipments experiencing growth this year except as a very best-case scenario. PC units contracted 4.4 percent in the first half of 2009 compared to the first half of 2008.
For PC shipments to post growth for the year, shipments would have to grow at least 4 percent in the second half of 2009 compared with the second half of 2008. Gartner analysts said that scenario seems just a bit beyond the market's capability at this point, even assuming Windows 7 enjoys an enthusiastic reception when it is released October 22.
"We don't expect the release of Windows 7 to significantly influence PC demand at year-end," Shiffler said. "At best, Windows 7 may generate a modest bump in home demand and possibly some added demand among small businesses. However, we aren't expecting most larger businesses, governments and educational institutions to express strong demand for the new operating system until late 2010. We're actually more concerned that vendors will overestimate the initial demand for Windows 7 and end up carrying excess inventories into 2010."
Mini-notebooks continued to grow strongly in the second quarter of 2009 but faced increasing competition from lower-priced mainstream notebooks. They also continued to put tremendous downward pressure on PC prices in general and consumer mobile PC prices in particular.
Gartner has revised its mini-notebook forecast upward. Worldwide mini-notebook shipments are now forecast to reach 25 million units in 2009, up from Gartner's projection in May of 21 million shipments. Shipments are now forecast to reach 37 million units in 2010. Even so, mini-notebooks' share of the overall mobile PC market is now expected to level out a bit sooner than before.
"At least unit-wise, 2010 should be a considerably better year for the PC market," Shiffler noted. "We now expect units to grow 12.6 percent next year as mobile PC growth continues to gain momentum and desk-based PC growth turns positive, thanks to revived replacement activity. However, we don’t see the on-going declines in PC average selling prices slowing down significantly next year, so spending is likely to be more or less flat in 2010."
Showing posts with label PC shipments. Show all posts
Showing posts with label PC shipments. Show all posts
Saturday, September 26, 2009
Wednesday, July 15, 2009
PC market to suffer first decline since Dot-Com bubble!
EL SEGUNDO, USA: For the first time since the Dot-Com bust of 2001, the global PC market will suffer a contraction in unit shipments in 2009, due to a combination of falling IT spending and plunging sales of desktop computers, iSuppli Corp. predicts.
Global PC shipments are expected to decline to 287.3 million units in 2009, down 4 percent from 299.2 million in 2008. iSuppli previously forecasted 0.7 percent growth in PC shipments for the year.
“An annual decline in unit shipments is highly unusual in the PC market,” observed Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, compute platforms for iSuppli. “Even in weak years, PC unit shipments typically rise by single-digit percentages. The last decline—in 2001—was a 5.1 decrease in unit shipments due to the extraordinary impact of the Dot-Com bust, which caused inflated IT spending levels from the previous years to collapse.”
The primary factor driving the decline in the PC market in 2009 is an expected 18.1 percent plunge in desktop shipments. Unit shipments of desktop PCs will amount to 124.4 million in 2009, down from 151.9 million in 2008.
Entry-level servers -- which iSuppli includes in its definition of PCs -- also will suffer a decline, with shipments falling to 6.9 million units, down 9.5 percent from 7.7 million in 2008.
In contrast, notebook PC shipments in 2009 will rise by 11.7 percent to reach 155.97 million units, up from 139.6 million in 2008. Notebook PC shipments will exceed those of desktops on an annual basis for the first time ever in 2009.
“Mobility is winning out in the PC market,” Wilkins said. “Businesses and consumers continue to embrace notebooks PCs because of the benefits of mobility and the near-equal performance and feature set. This is cutting into desktop PC shipments.” Meanwhile, enterprise spending on IT technology is hurting PC sales.
“Tight budgets are putting the squeeze on corporate IT spending,” Wilkins said. “This is hitting desktop and server sales particularly hard.” The figure presents iSuppli’s forecast of global annual PC shipments.
iSuppli Figure: Global PC Shipment Forecast (Thousands of Units)
Source: iSuppli, July 2009
Rocky bottom
While iSuppli is currently correlating its data for second-quarter 2009 PC shipments, iSuppli’s forecast for the second quarter calls for flat shipments rising a scant 0.1 percent to reach 66.54 million units, up from 66.45 million in the first quarter.
In the third and fourth quarters, shipments are expected to rise sequentially by 11 and 8.9 percent, respectively.
“Although our expectation is for shipments to rise vigorously in the third quarter on a sequential basis, conditions remain weak compared to 2008.”
Shipments in the third quarter will be down 6.5 percent compared to the same period in 2008.
However, in the fourth quarter, shipments will rise by 3.6 percent compared to a year earlier. This trend will continue in 2010, with shipments rising on a year-over-year basis during every quarter of the year. For all of 2010, global PC shipments will rise by 4.7 percent from 2009.
Global PC shipments are expected to decline to 287.3 million units in 2009, down 4 percent from 299.2 million in 2008. iSuppli previously forecasted 0.7 percent growth in PC shipments for the year.
“An annual decline in unit shipments is highly unusual in the PC market,” observed Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst, compute platforms for iSuppli. “Even in weak years, PC unit shipments typically rise by single-digit percentages. The last decline—in 2001—was a 5.1 decrease in unit shipments due to the extraordinary impact of the Dot-Com bust, which caused inflated IT spending levels from the previous years to collapse.”
The primary factor driving the decline in the PC market in 2009 is an expected 18.1 percent plunge in desktop shipments. Unit shipments of desktop PCs will amount to 124.4 million in 2009, down from 151.9 million in 2008.
Entry-level servers -- which iSuppli includes in its definition of PCs -- also will suffer a decline, with shipments falling to 6.9 million units, down 9.5 percent from 7.7 million in 2008.
In contrast, notebook PC shipments in 2009 will rise by 11.7 percent to reach 155.97 million units, up from 139.6 million in 2008. Notebook PC shipments will exceed those of desktops on an annual basis for the first time ever in 2009.
“Mobility is winning out in the PC market,” Wilkins said. “Businesses and consumers continue to embrace notebooks PCs because of the benefits of mobility and the near-equal performance and feature set. This is cutting into desktop PC shipments.” Meanwhile, enterprise spending on IT technology is hurting PC sales.
“Tight budgets are putting the squeeze on corporate IT spending,” Wilkins said. “This is hitting desktop and server sales particularly hard.” The figure presents iSuppli’s forecast of global annual PC shipments.
iSuppli Figure: Global PC Shipment Forecast (Thousands of Units)
Source: iSuppli, July 2009Rocky bottom
While iSuppli is currently correlating its data for second-quarter 2009 PC shipments, iSuppli’s forecast for the second quarter calls for flat shipments rising a scant 0.1 percent to reach 66.54 million units, up from 66.45 million in the first quarter.
In the third and fourth quarters, shipments are expected to rise sequentially by 11 and 8.9 percent, respectively.
“Although our expectation is for shipments to rise vigorously in the third quarter on a sequential basis, conditions remain weak compared to 2008.”
Shipments in the third quarter will be down 6.5 percent compared to the same period in 2008.
However, in the fourth quarter, shipments will rise by 3.6 percent compared to a year earlier. This trend will continue in 2010, with shipments rising on a year-over-year basis during every quarter of the year. For all of 2010, global PC shipments will rise by 4.7 percent from 2009.
Tuesday, June 23, 2009
Global PC shipments plunge at historic rate in Q1
EL SEGUNDO, USA: Worldwide PC shipments in the first quarter fell by the largest historic rate in the seven years iSuppli Corp. has been tracking the market, as weaker-than-expected desktop sales dragged down the industry, according to iSuppli Corp.
PC shipments in the first quarter of 2009 amounted to 66.5 million units, an 8.1 percent decline from 72.3 million during the same period in 2008, and a 14.4 percent drop from 77.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2008.
“The worldwide recession sparked by the credit crisis slammed PC shipments for the second quarter in succession during the first three months of 2009,” said Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst for compute platforms research at iSuppli.
“The first-quarter performance of the worldwide PC market was worse than iSuppli had expected in its prior forecast, which called for a 4 percent decline in shipments compared to the same period in 2008. After a long period of immunity to the global downturn, the economic crisis finally has begun to impact the PC market.”
The desktop segment was the major culprit for the PC decline, with first-quarter unit shipments dropping by 23 percent compared to the same period in 2008. In contrast, notebook shipments grew 10 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008.
Source: iSuppli, June 2009
Top-5 PC makers retain ranks
There were no changes in the rankings of the world’s Top-5 PC OEMs in the first quarter compared to the same period a year earlier.
Hewlett-Packard remained the No.-1 PC OEM for the 11th successive quarter, with its shipments remaining flat from a year earlier at 13 million units. The company held a market share of 19.7 percent.
Dell experienced an 18.7 percent drop in PC unit shipments, declining to 8.8 million in the first quarter, compared to 10.8 million during the same period in the 2008. The company’s market share declined to 13.2 percent, down from 14.9 percent in the first quarter of 2008.
“Dell’s performance in the first quarter was heavily influenced by its weak desktop shipments, which dragged down its overall market share,” Wilkins said.
The remainder of the Top-5 was rounded out by the Asian PC OEMs, Acer, Lenovo and Toshiba, which had market shares of 11.1, 6.7, and 5.2 percent, respectively.
Toshiba posted the strongest growth among the Top-5 on a percentage basis, with its shipments rising by 13.5 percent from a year earlier.
Platform exposure
iSuppli in the first quarter continued to observe strong netbook sales through network operator retail stores. The Top-5 PC OEMs cited sales through such outlets as driving demand for their netbook products.
“The bundling of a low-cost portable computer and an Internet access package clearly has struck a chord with consumers,” Wilkins said. “The reduced upfront pricing of such packages provided by monthly contract plans also has been a strong factor propelling their success.”
iSuppli predicts that netbooks will account for 14 percent of worldwide notebook PC shipments in 2009, up from 9 percent last year.
PC shipments in the first quarter of 2009 amounted to 66.5 million units, an 8.1 percent decline from 72.3 million during the same period in 2008, and a 14.4 percent drop from 77.6 million in the fourth quarter of 2008.
“The worldwide recession sparked by the credit crisis slammed PC shipments for the second quarter in succession during the first three months of 2009,” said Matthew Wilkins, principal analyst for compute platforms research at iSuppli.
“The first-quarter performance of the worldwide PC market was worse than iSuppli had expected in its prior forecast, which called for a 4 percent decline in shipments compared to the same period in 2008. After a long period of immunity to the global downturn, the economic crisis finally has begun to impact the PC market.”
The desktop segment was the major culprit for the PC decline, with first-quarter unit shipments dropping by 23 percent compared to the same period in 2008. In contrast, notebook shipments grew 10 percent compared to the first quarter of 2008.
Source: iSuppli, June 2009Top-5 PC makers retain ranks
There were no changes in the rankings of the world’s Top-5 PC OEMs in the first quarter compared to the same period a year earlier.
Hewlett-Packard remained the No.-1 PC OEM for the 11th successive quarter, with its shipments remaining flat from a year earlier at 13 million units. The company held a market share of 19.7 percent.
Dell experienced an 18.7 percent drop in PC unit shipments, declining to 8.8 million in the first quarter, compared to 10.8 million during the same period in the 2008. The company’s market share declined to 13.2 percent, down from 14.9 percent in the first quarter of 2008.
“Dell’s performance in the first quarter was heavily influenced by its weak desktop shipments, which dragged down its overall market share,” Wilkins said.
The remainder of the Top-5 was rounded out by the Asian PC OEMs, Acer, Lenovo and Toshiba, which had market shares of 11.1, 6.7, and 5.2 percent, respectively.
Toshiba posted the strongest growth among the Top-5 on a percentage basis, with its shipments rising by 13.5 percent from a year earlier.
Platform exposure
iSuppli in the first quarter continued to observe strong netbook sales through network operator retail stores. The Top-5 PC OEMs cited sales through such outlets as driving demand for their netbook products.
“The bundling of a low-cost portable computer and an Internet access package clearly has struck a chord with consumers,” Wilkins said. “The reduced upfront pricing of such packages provided by monthly contract plans also has been a strong factor propelling their success.”
iSuppli predicts that netbooks will account for 14 percent of worldwide notebook PC shipments in 2009, up from 9 percent last year.
Friday, June 12, 2009
Consumer portable PCs limit volume decline, but shipment value suffers
FRAMINGHAM, USA: Worldwide PC shipments fell 6.8 percent in the first quarter of 2009 (1Q09), about 1.4 percent better than expected but still the largest decrease since the third quarter of 2001, according to IDC's Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker.
Although volume declined less than expected thanks to some positive activity in the latter part of the quarter, the Commercial sector and key macroeconomics indicators remain weak.
The growth of Mini Notebook PCs is playing a dramatic role in the market. Mini Notebook PC shipments of 5.7 million in 1Q09 were ahead of expectations, but contributed to a decline of 3.1 million traditional notebooks from a year ago.
The impact on shipment value was dramatic, with Mini Notebook PCs contributing $2.2 billion in the first quarter of 2009 while the value of traditional notebook shipments declined by US$8.4 billion from a year ago. Mini Notebook pricing is expected to rise with more robust models, and shipment growth is expected to slow with the release of low-cost, thin-and-light Intel CULV and AMD Congo-based systems this fall.
However, the growth of Mini Notebooks to 9.5 percent of total PC shipments (17.3 percent of Portables) in 2009 will help drive shipment value down by 17.7 percent even as volumes decline just 3.2 percent.
Mature markets saw growth drop significantly in the past two quarters, but are expected to stabilize and improve going forward. The United States and Western Europe outperformed forecasts as consumer demand was supported by strong ASP declines that were accelerated by growth in Mini Notebook PCs.
Although 1Q09 was promising, shipments in the United States are still expected to decline by just over 2 percent in 2009 and see less than 1 percent growth in 2010. Western Europe saw a limited impact in 4Q08, but saw growth disappear in the first quarter and is likely to see further contraction in 2Q09 before stabilizing –- putting 2009 growth slightly below zero while double-digit growth will not return until 2011.
Projections for Japan were lowered as 1Q09 activity missed expectations, though we continue to expect low-single digit growth in 2010-2011.
Continuing the trend from the fourth quarter of 2008, emerging markets continue to account for the most dramatic shipment declines. Lack of credit along with continued currency devaluation continued a cycle of shrinking resources for channel financing that severely affected Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe.
Canada, along with Latin America and CEMA combined are expecting 2009 to see a decline of more than 13 percent although the region will see double-digit growth in 2010 as it rebounds from 2009.
In contrast to other emerging regions, Asia/Pacific excluding Japan (APeJ) came in slightly above forecast as government spending funneled money to infrastructure improvements and vouchers to stimulate consumer spending. China in particular fared better than hoped. For the rest of 2009 PC growth should accelerate in APeJ, reaching near 12% for 2010, and leading other regions through the end of the forecast.
PC Shipments By Region And Form Factor, 2008-2013
* Forecast data
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, June 2009
“The economic crisis continues to dampen PC demand and force changes in the market,” said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. “Mature regions are navigating the changes better than emerging regions in the short-term as finances remain more liquid, but from 2010 forward emerging regions will have the advantage in both growth and volume. Meanwhile, the concentration of growth in the consumer segment and in evolving categories like Mini Notebooks is quickly raising the stakes of competition.”
"Despite a relatively slow first quarter, industry supply chain checks suggest that the worst is over and we are starting to be more optimistic about volume growth at the end of the year and especially into 2010," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC's vice president, Clients and Displays.
"New product introductions coming this fall, including low-cost, thin-and-light consumer portables, low-cost Intel Atom-based all-in-ones, and, of course, Windows 7, should provide a spark that helps to push market towards positive shipment growth over the next 12 months."
PC Shipment Growth By Region And Form Factor, 2008-2013
* Forecast data
Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, June 2009
Although volume declined less than expected thanks to some positive activity in the latter part of the quarter, the Commercial sector and key macroeconomics indicators remain weak.
The growth of Mini Notebook PCs is playing a dramatic role in the market. Mini Notebook PC shipments of 5.7 million in 1Q09 were ahead of expectations, but contributed to a decline of 3.1 million traditional notebooks from a year ago.
The impact on shipment value was dramatic, with Mini Notebook PCs contributing $2.2 billion in the first quarter of 2009 while the value of traditional notebook shipments declined by US$8.4 billion from a year ago. Mini Notebook pricing is expected to rise with more robust models, and shipment growth is expected to slow with the release of low-cost, thin-and-light Intel CULV and AMD Congo-based systems this fall.
However, the growth of Mini Notebooks to 9.5 percent of total PC shipments (17.3 percent of Portables) in 2009 will help drive shipment value down by 17.7 percent even as volumes decline just 3.2 percent.
Mature markets saw growth drop significantly in the past two quarters, but are expected to stabilize and improve going forward. The United States and Western Europe outperformed forecasts as consumer demand was supported by strong ASP declines that were accelerated by growth in Mini Notebook PCs.
Although 1Q09 was promising, shipments in the United States are still expected to decline by just over 2 percent in 2009 and see less than 1 percent growth in 2010. Western Europe saw a limited impact in 4Q08, but saw growth disappear in the first quarter and is likely to see further contraction in 2Q09 before stabilizing –- putting 2009 growth slightly below zero while double-digit growth will not return until 2011.
Projections for Japan were lowered as 1Q09 activity missed expectations, though we continue to expect low-single digit growth in 2010-2011.
Continuing the trend from the fourth quarter of 2008, emerging markets continue to account for the most dramatic shipment declines. Lack of credit along with continued currency devaluation continued a cycle of shrinking resources for channel financing that severely affected Latin America and Central/Eastern Europe.
Canada, along with Latin America and CEMA combined are expecting 2009 to see a decline of more than 13 percent although the region will see double-digit growth in 2010 as it rebounds from 2009.
In contrast to other emerging regions, Asia/Pacific excluding Japan (APeJ) came in slightly above forecast as government spending funneled money to infrastructure improvements and vouchers to stimulate consumer spending. China in particular fared better than hoped. For the rest of 2009 PC growth should accelerate in APeJ, reaching near 12% for 2010, and leading other regions through the end of the forecast.
PC Shipments By Region And Form Factor, 2008-2013
* Forecast dataSource: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, June 2009
“The economic crisis continues to dampen PC demand and force changes in the market,” said Loren Loverde, director of IDC’s Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker. “Mature regions are navigating the changes better than emerging regions in the short-term as finances remain more liquid, but from 2010 forward emerging regions will have the advantage in both growth and volume. Meanwhile, the concentration of growth in the consumer segment and in evolving categories like Mini Notebooks is quickly raising the stakes of competition.”
"Despite a relatively slow first quarter, industry supply chain checks suggest that the worst is over and we are starting to be more optimistic about volume growth at the end of the year and especially into 2010," said Bob O'Donnell, IDC's vice president, Clients and Displays.
"New product introductions coming this fall, including low-cost, thin-and-light consumer portables, low-cost Intel Atom-based all-in-ones, and, of course, Windows 7, should provide a spark that helps to push market towards positive shipment growth over the next 12 months."
PC Shipment Growth By Region And Form Factor, 2008-2013
* Forecast dataSource: IDC Worldwide Quarterly PC Tracker, June 2009
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