In terms of the 2011 global LCD TV shipment forecast, WitsView research director Burrell Liu indicated that their initial assessment in early 2011 was 225 million. It was subsequently revised downward to 215 million units. Based on the current market trend, he believes the figure will likely be revised again, down to roughly 204~207 million units. Compared to last year’s 182~185 million TV set shipments, the annual growth in 2011 will be a mere 11 percent.
The reasons behind the worse-than-expected shipment forecast are attributed to the following reasons:
1. Due to the end of the Eco Point Initiative program and the devastating impact from the March '11 earthquake, the market demand in Japan has slowed.
2. The turnaround in the global economy has not been as strong as previously expected. Coupled by the Greece debt crisis, the overall market confidence has evidently weakened. This had made it much more difficult for the brand vendors to attain their 2011 annual shipment targets that were announced during early 2011.
3. The turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa triggered a sharp increase in oil prices. Coupled by the price jump for corn, cotton and other raw materials caused by bad weather, the resulting global inflationary increases have affected consumer confidence.
4. The rising popularity of tablet PCs has increased the desire of consumers to buy products that are more fashionable and novel. Sales of products that do not have such characteristics have grown more sluggish.
In sum, compared to last year, the 2011 global market share of China’s TV brand shipment will likely continue to stay at a steady 20 percent. Meanwhile, WitsView projects that the TV set shipments from China’s top 6 TV brands will reach approximately 38 million in 2011 (2010: 33.5 million).
Shipment-wise
In May '11, the aggregated shipments from China’s top 6 TV brand vendors declined by 19 percent MoM (Table 1) to 2.645 million. Excluding Haier, who was still able to post a whopping 54 percent monthly shipment increase, the remaining five players all registered a sharp monthly decline.
The market share of the top 3 brand vendors were as follows: Hisense (25.4 percent); TCL (17.2 percent); Skyworth (16.6 percent). Separately, the LED TV shipment ratio of China’s top 6 TV brand vendors continued to exceed 40 percent, marking the third consecutive month. It is expected that by the end of the year, LED TVs will take up roughly 47~50 percent of their total TV shipments, even higher than the 40~43 percent ratio of other global TV brands.
Table 1: China Top 6 TV Brand Shipment Record-May (unit)
Source: WitsView, Taiwan.Size performance
Size-wise (table 2), the shipment ratio of the below 26” segment from China’s top 6 TV brand vendors was 20.5 percent, up by 0.4 percentage points from last month. The 24”, which saw the highest amount of shipments, held an 8.4 percent ratio among the below 26” portion. As for the above 32”, such products grabbed a ratio of 79.4 percent. The bulk of shipments continued to go to the 32” size, where it rose by another 1.5 percentage points to 42.34 percent. This was followed by the 42” (16.4 percent), the 37” (7.4 percent), and finally, the 26” (7.1 percent).
Table 2: China Top6 Brand TV shipment breakdown by size share (unit)
Source: WitsView, Taiwan.Shipment volume distribution in China and overseas market
Shipment volume in China: 1.843 million units, 8.8 thousand units less than during Apr11. Meanwhile, the shipment ratio between China and the overseas market was 69.7 percent to 30.2 percent.
In comparison to the 83.5 percent and 16.5 percent ratio back in Apr11, the LCD TV shipments from China’s top 6 brand vendors in the local segment grew slower, possibly due to weaker demand after the Labor Day holidays or a gradual build-up in inventory levels. Thus, the jump in the overseas market did not reflect an actual shipment volume increase. It is worthy to keep a close eye on how this trend develops.
Panel demand wise
Table 3 shows the major panel makers’ respective share among China’s top 6 TV brand vendors. CMI was ranked No. 1 with a 29.3 percent share. Coming in second was LGD, with a 27 percent share. As for Samsung and AUO, they respectively garnered a 20.5 percent and 17.6 percent share.
In terms of the China market, the Taiwan and Korean players were relatively evenly matched. As mentioned earlier, the standardization in China’s Flat Panel TV energy efficiency provided a boost to the LED TV demand. In May '11, the combined share of LGD and Samsung among China’s top 6 TV brand vendors was 61 percent. AUO and CMI each respectively, grabbed a 21 percent and 16 percent share. Finally, LGD and Samsung were the two key suppliers of 3D panels, capturing a share of 74 percent and 11.5 percent, respectively.
Table 3: Share rate by panel makers (unit)
Source: WitsView, Taiwan.
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