Stable 4Q10 NB shipment is foreseeable and 1Q11 may be better in outlook

TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce, September shipment is better than our expectation that 3Q10 NB shipment QoQ is raised to 3 percent. Despite of the unsatisfactory shipment in July, Aug. shipment increase 14 percent MoM and September shipment increase 12 percent MoM, resulting in the 49.3 million units NB shipment in 3Q10.

DRAMeXchange thinks that ODM shipment will get stabilized gradually in 4Q10 despite concern in global 2H10 macro economy and revised yearly shipment target from OEMs.

Geographically speaking, the European market is mildly rebounding from the financial crisis while Back-To-School, sales condition in American market is beyond our expectation and inventory level remains a question mark. China still has outperformed other regions with the help from National Holiday sales.

September ODM shipment is the leading indicators for the inventory re-stock for 4Q year-end hot sales since sea shipment ratio is climbing up. 4Q10 real demand will be the key figures for OEMs orders to ODMs. DRAMeXchange expect 4Q10 NB-ODM shipment growth is expected to be 2-3 percent QoQ while 2010 NB shipment will be around 193 million units.

Looking forward to 1Q11, the new platform launch and increasing China market are expected to trigger the sales. Sandy Bridge platform, scheduled to launch in early 2011 by Intel, is anticipated to stimulate the demand with the graphic integration.

According to DRAMeXchange, PC sales share in China will likely reach 20 percent and gradually increase year by year since European and American market is much influenced. We see the demand for traditional Chinese New Year will help to simulate the shipment in 1Q11.Source: DRAMeXchange, Taiwan.