Wednesday, March 16, 2011

March notebook shipment increased to 40-50 percent month over month with low visibility in 2Q11 purchasing orders

TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, a research department of Trendforce, February notebook shipment has declined 21.8 percent month over month. Quanta and Compal have fallen behind expectation with a shipment record of 3.2 million units and 2.7 million units respectively. On the other hand, Pegatron February shipment dropped about 50 percent month over month.

Some of the main reasons are the continuous outsourcing from Asus, February being the shorter month of the year, and the impact of Intel’s flawed chipset. Purchasing orders actively placed by PC-OEMs, March Notebook shipment will likely rebound 40-50 percent with a lower base number in February. Due to the delay of Sandy Bridge and decreased demand at the end-user side, the overall 1Q11 Notebook shipment will decline 14 percent quarter over quarter with a 1.2 percent decline year over year to a total of 44 million units a year.

Given some shipment being postponed to April, a back-to-school season surge in demand and a higher sea shipment ratio, 2Q11 Notebook shipment records at a 12.2 percent quarter over quarter increase to 49.4 million. According to DRAMeXchange, however, purchasing orders were placed sparingly with a low visibility, the channel side is reluctant to increase inventory.

The concern of high oil price and raising commodity price will impede the sales momentum. The devastating earthquake in Japan has influenced the production of some notebook components in part of semiconductor, panel and battery cell. DRAMeXchange will keep a close eye on the Notebook supply chain, Japan makes up for around 5 percent of the global market and we expect a delay in the cycle of the notebook replacement effect in Japan.

Thus, 2011 global notebook shipment was adjusted down to 215.2 million units with a growth rate of 11 percent year over year. 2011 worldwide PC growth rate (Tablet excluded) decreased from 8.8 percent to 7.4 percent.Source: DRAMeXchange.

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