This comes despite a very slow recovery from the Great Recession of 2008-2009, and weakness in regions like North America reflecting continued caution on the part of some developed market consumers. Innovations like 3D were introduced to capture consumers’ attention and drive strong growth in 2010, but sales of 3D TVs will likely disappoint many brands and retailers at around 3 million units worldwide.
“North America continues to be a tough market for TV sales, with total TV shipments rising just 0.4 percent year over year through the first three quarters of 2010,” noted Paul Gagnon, Director of North America TV Research for DisplaySearch.
“As unemployment remains high and consumers remain sensitive to price, budget-conscious consumers have been surprised by limited price declines, partially influenced by a much stronger mix of advanced TV technologies introduced this year like LED backlights, 3D, and internet connectivity which offset any price declines,” continued Gagnon. Average TV prices in North America are only expected to fall 6 percent Y/Y in 2010 compared with a 22% decline in 2009.
LCD continues to dominate TV shipments worldwide, accounting for at least half of all TV shipments in all regions except Asia Pacific. Even with the strong demand growth for LCD TVs worldwide, shipments have been lower than manufacturers expected, and the resulting rise in global LCD TV inventory during Q3’10 has led to more vigorous price erosion during Q4’10.
LCD TV shipments will rise from 190 million in 2010 to 215 million in 2011, although an increase in the rate of ASP erosion will lead to the first ever revenue decline in the LCD TV category. Japan has been a spotlight market for LCD TV growth in 2010, with LCD TV shipments forecast at 22.6 million units, an increase of 80% from 2009 due to the Eco-Points stimulus program. That program will end in 2011, so shipments are expected to fall sharply.
European shipments have been fairly robust in 2010, but growth will fall from double- to single-digit rates over the next few years. Also a first in 2011, emerging regions will overtake the developed regions (Japan, North America, and Western Europe) in total LCD TV unit volume as the growth focus shifts to countries with lower flat panel TV penetration.
LED backlights have been a key trend for LCD TVs in 2010, and their penetration into LCD TV shipments will rise to 20 percent globally due to more attractive pricing, especially in the second half of the year. In 2011, LED-backlit models are expected to account for the majority of LCD TV shipments worldwide as manufacturers continue to transition away from fluorescent backlights. This is possible due to the rapidly decreases in the premium for LED models from highs of 100 percent during 1H’10, to less than 50 percent in 2011; for some sizes and frame rates it will fall to nearly 20 percent.
Plasma TV demand continues to be very robust in 2010, helped by the fact that consumers are still looking for strong value and plasma TV has maintained its rate of price decline. Plasma TV shipments are now expected to exceed 18 million units in 2010, a 28 percent increase from 2009, when shipments actually declined Y/Y.
Fig. 1: Worldwide TV Market by Technology
Source: ce: DisplaySearch Quarterly Advanced Global TV Shipment and Forecast Report.
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