2011 CES trends to watch (Part I): Tablets and 3D

Shawn Dubravac, CFA, Chief Economist and Director of Research, Consumer Electronics Association.

USA: While hard to believe, it's that time of year again. When it comes to new products launches -- much of what will happen in 2010 has happened. We now turn our attention to the new year when many of tomorrow's products will see the light of day at the 2011 International CES.

With that in mind, I wanted to beat the crowds and provide a glimpse of things as I see them happening. Here are my first two predictions for 2011 CES trends – with more to follow.

The Year of the Tablet
Without doubt 2011 will be the year of the tablet.

Apple's launch of the iPad has left an undeniable print on the mobile computing space. After a decade with minimal success, a tablet computing device is (finally) garnering mass market appeal.

There are many factors driving this trend -- not least of which is timing. The global appeal of Apple's iPad is simultaneously brazening others to enter the fold and compete for this quickly growing market.

While many firms are touting product launches within the tablet sphere for the fourth quarter of 2010, the real action will occur a few weeks after the end of the quarter at CES. This same timeline played out last year with a similar device -- eReaders. While we saw scattered product launches in the fourth quarter most were reserved for CES.

At the 2010 International CES we saw a dozen plus new eReaders revealed -- with many of these devices just now coming to market. Design cycles as they are mean tablets are really a 2011 story, not as much a 2010 one, and CES will mark the debut for many of these. I have a list of 80+ tablets that have been announced and many of these will see the light of day at the 2011 CES.

With competition heating up, each and every aspect of differentiation will be on the table -- OS, screen size, color, and available applications. As a product matures, aspects like screen sizes consolidate. Look at the flat panel market where screens mostly group around 32", 37", 42", 46", 55", etc. But with a nascent category like tablets these normal have yet to be established so everything is on the table (pun intended).

Significant growth for a nascent category will also propel adjacent, but not to be overlooked markets like accessories. Expect to see the 2011 CES explode with not only cases and bags but also a wide selection of items like Bluetooth-enabled devices specifically targeting the tablet space.

Recent research undertaken by CES shows consumers associate the tablet more with the mobile phone than with the computer. This is not widely appreciated but it will influence the tablet-related offerings at CES 2011.

The Year of 3D -- again
The 2010 CES was certainly defined by 3D. This included 3D content, hardware and services. A plethora of hardware offerings were launched at CES including 3DTVs, Blu-ray players, and AV receivers. But CES also showcased DirecTV's first public
broadcast of 3D and played home to ESPN’s announcement of ESPN 3D.

A spec for 3D Blu-ray was released in conjunction with CES -- making possible home 3D viewing and Sony showed 3D gaming on the PS3.

The 2011 CES will again play home to the entire 3D ecosystem. CES is well positioned to showcase the continuum of technologies that spreads across categories. 3D is still a very nascent home entertainment technology so 2011 will again represent an important catalyst in the evolution of 3D. Expect to see more 3D than ever before. We'll start with bigger, more feature-rich 3DTV -- a given.

But 3D will expand wider than it did last year. The story of 3D at CES 2011 will be subtlety. We'll start with 3D eyewear where no standard exists (yet). I expect to see several companies highlighting 3D active shutter eyewear solutions.

Autostereoscopic -- 3D without the need for eyewear -- will be more pronounced this coming year. I also expect to see 3D more pronounced in the rear-seat of the vehicle, in the palm of your hand through mobile devices, and digital signage.

To be continued…….