“Because of the earthquake, Corning has suspended production at its glass manufacturing facility in Shizuoka, Japan,” said Sweta Dash, senior director of LCD research for iSuppli.
“This supply interruption will disrupt LCD production at Sharp. Corp.’s eighth-generation fab, which supplies panels for 32-inch and 40-inch as well as larger LCD-TVs. However, with glass suppliers increasing their output to meet rising demand for Christmas, the overall demand for this key raw material is expected to exceed demand by the start of the fourth quarter.”
All other LCD glass facilities operated by Corning and other glass manufacturers worldwide continue to operate normally. Corning expects to restore its Shizuoka facility to full production within a few months.
LCD glass supply has been in a state of oversupply since the second half of 2008.
After suffering a supply glut of 13 percent in the fourth quarter of 2008, conditions shifted dramatically in the first quarter of 2009 as panel makers idled many of their production lines in order to adjust to reduced demand. This caused demand to exceed supply by 0.5 percent in the first quarter.
The undersupply rose to 1 percent in the second quarter primarily due to strong panel demand, especially from China’s television market. The shortage is expected to intensify in the third quarter to a 2 percent undersupply, before reversing to a 4 percent oversupply in the fourth quarter as panel demand cools following the holiday purchasing season.
Demand-driven shortfall
While the glass shortage has contributed to tight availability of large-sized LCD panels, the major factor behind the short supply is strong demand.
“In a positive sign for the global large-sized LCD market, panels are in short supply mainly due to strong demand from television and PC makers that are building supply in advance of the Christmas selling season,” Dash said. “This indicates that computer, monitor and LCD-TV makers are anticipating strong demand during the upcoming holiday season.”
iSuppli defines large-sized panels as those having a diagonal dimension of 10 inches or more. Aggravating the shortage, LCD panel buyers are engaging in overbooking, i.e., placing more orders than they really need, in order to secure supply in the face of limited availability and despite some increase in inventories among channels and buyers.
Taiwanese troubles
Beyond the direct impact on Sharp, some Taiwanese suppliers are concerned that their supplies may be impacted if glass shipments are diverted to Japan.
The Taiwanese suppliers already were bearing the brunt of the glass shortage at their older fifth- and sixth-generation LCD fabs. Such fabs specialize in producing smaller displays used in products like desktop monitors, notebook PCs and smaller-sized televisions.
Glass supplies get clearer
“Fortunately for the global large-sized LCD panel industry, the Corning supply disruption is coming at a time when most of the idled glass tanks in the world are starting to come back to full production mode,” Dash said. “That will help to reduce the total impact on LCD panel supply.”
Previously idled glass tanks are expected to return to normal production levels by the end of August. In the fourth quarter, most of the glass issues are expected to be resolved, allowing panel suppliers to operate at full production levels.
Because of this, many panel suppliers are already planning expansions of their newer eighth- , 8.5- and tenth-generation fabs in the fourth quarter.
Prices affecting profitability?
The combination of strong demand and short supply caused large-sized panel prices to rise sharply during July. For example, the price of a representative large-sized LCD, the 32-inch WXGA television panel, climbed 10.4 percent in July. The price increase moderated to a 5.8 percent rise in August.
The figure presents average global pricing for 32-inch WXGA LCD panels for the period of October 2008 through August 2009.
iSuppli: Global Average Pricing for 32-inch WXGA LCD TV Panels (Pricing in US Dollars)
Source: iSuppli, Aug. 2009“The increase in pricing is certainly welcome news for panel suppliers especially after facing several quarters of pricing below manufacturing costs,” Dash said. “However, at this point it comes as bad news for branded vendors of televisions, desktop PC monitors and notebooks, as their profitability is being squeezed by rising panel prices.”
iSuppli already is noting that monitor and TV system makers are suffering losses in profitability due to these hikes. As a result, some panel buyers have become conservative about building their panel inventories and are resisting accepting any sharp price increases. This is causing price hikes to moderate somewhat in August.
“iSuppli anticipates a downward price correction in the fourth quarter as LCD panels return to a state of oversupply,” Dash said. “This correction could be of a greater magnitude than the industry expects.”
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