3Q NB shipment growing 12.8 percent QoQ

TAIWAN: According to DRAMeXchange, the research department of Trendforce, June NB shipment is recorded at 17 million units with 9.3 percent MoM, given the rising sea shipment portion, and inventory management of PC-OEM and for back-to-school demand.

Third quarter is traditionally the hot season for PCs while the average QoQ is 15-20 percent. Nevertheless, 3Q/4Q growth momentum is limited due to higher base in 1H10 and the noise for European markets. Thus, DRAMeXchange expects the 3Q10 NB shipment QoQ will be estimated at 12.8 percent.

July is likely to be the lowest point for 3Q after strong shipment in June. August and September will indicate the upward pattern sequentially. PC-ODM did not reveal the clear visibility toward 4Q under the gloomy economic situation. That is, the channel sales in July and August will be critical to the growth in fourth quarter.

We have also seen slow netbook down momentum with the cannibalization from iPad and other iPad like device. According to our check, 2010 netbook shipment is estimated at 35M units with 24 percent YoY.

Tablet PCs will bring the strong challenge to netbooks since the price gap between an iPad-like tablet PC and netbook is narrowing. Most PC-OEMs will launch new tablet PCs in 2H10 and will very likely adjust down netbook prices to stimulate the demand.

DRAMeXchange indicates that many PC-OEMs will gradually re-target at regular notebook with the expectation in melted netbook demand.